Poll: Supreme Court bigger election motivator for Democrats

WASHINGTON −Americans overwhelmingly agree that the outcome of the next presidential election will have a major impact on the future of the Supreme Court, according to a new USA TODAY-Ipsos election year poll.
But the poll also shows the issue is more of a motivator for Democrats than for Republicans or independents.
“To me it’s very important because whoever shapes the court, basically, is going to shape our lives for the future,” said Vicki Sestok, a 56-year-old Democrat from Palmerton, Penn.
While more than four out of five adults surveyed said the election will impact the court, 59% of Democrats strongly agreed with that statement compared with 42% of independents and 38% of Republicans.
Democrats were also more likely to rank the court as an important issue in deciding how they will vote. Seven out of ten Democrats called it “very important” compared with less than half of Republicans or independents.
Independent John Tran, a 33-year-old middle school history teacher from California, disagrees with some of the court’s recent decisions, including overturning Roe v. Wade. But Tran, who hasn’t decided who he will support for president in November, said issues that have a day-to-day impact on his life − like the economy − are more important in swaying his vote.
And David Pier, a 76-year-old retiree from Ohio who usually votes Republican, said immigration and the economy are the top reasons he’s supporting Donald Trump.
“I think they do a great job,” Pier said of the current Supreme Court.
Democrats were also the most familiar with major recent court decisions – including on abortion and presidential immunity − and with proposed reforms such as term limits.
“Filling the seats on the Supreme Court has become certainly a political issue, but one that Democratic politicians can use to galvanize their base,” said Mallory Newall, vice president for public affairs at Ipsos. “Democrats have seen during a Trump presidency multiple nominees to the Supreme Court, and I think we’ve seen the outcome of that.”
Trump, in 2016, said he would appoint justices who would undo the constitutional right to an abortion.
He was able to fulfil that campaign promise in part because Senate Republicans blocked President Barack Obama from filling an opening in his last year and, in Trump’s last months, pushed through his third nomination.
“Thanks to these justices, we have also achieved what the pro-life movement fought to get for 49 years,” Trump told a conference of Christian conservative voters in June.
More:Americans want to rein in Supreme Court justices, poll finds
Leah Granstrom, a 23-year-old teacher from Saint Paul, Minn., said seeing how the court’s decisions can impact her life has made Supreme Court nominations a bigger issue for her.
“It’s horrifying watching people from all over the country not able to receive proper medical care, or abortion care, any other reproductive care,” said Granstrom, a Democrat. “As a young woman, that’s frightening to watch.”
Even for some not in need of reproductive care, the decision is catapulting them to vote for Democrats in November. Cheryl Rodefer, a private school tutor and 62-year-old independent from Ohio said that she blames Trump and doesn’t trust him to not take any more rights away from people.
“I don’t agree with having an abortion, but I don’t agree with telling a woman what to do with her body,” she said. “I do think the whole complexion of the Supreme Court could go either way based on whoever we elect this term.”
Larry Forrer, a 52-year travel agent from Arlington, Va., said his concerns about what Trump would do to the Supreme Court if he won the 2016 election came to reality. And now he’s thinking about what openings the next occupant of the White House may get to fill.
“You’ve got some very conservative judges that are up there that may retire,” said Forrer, a Democrat. “If they do, it’s a way to rebalance the court to make it more equitable and fair, more in line with where Americans are.”
The court’s longest serving justice, Clarence Thomas, is 76. Justice Samuel Alito, who authored Dobbs, is 74.
The most senior liberal justice, Sonya Sotomayor, is 70.
While limiting justices to 18-year-terms was supported by 63% of those surveyed, the proposal was backed by 83% of Democrats.
Term limits was among the court reforms President Joe Biden pitched last month as he was passing the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Since taking over the top of the Democrats’ ticket, Harris has talked about the Supreme Court when attacking Trump.
She’s criticized him for putting on the court enough justices to overturn Roe v. Wade. And she’s gone after the court’s conservative majority for granting immunity protections to presidents, a decision that delayed – and could prevent – Trump from being prosecuted for trying to overturn the 2020 election.
The Supreme Court, Harris said at a recent campaign event in California, “basically just told the former president, who has been convicted of fraud, that going forth, he will effectively be immune no matter what he does in the White House.”
More than three-fourths of Democrats  − compared to 64% of all poll respondents – said they were familiar with the immunity ruling. About eight in ten Democrats said the decision is a “major threat to democracy.” Half of independents called it a major threat and only 14% of Republicans did.
Legal historian Stuart Banner, author of an upcoming book on the history of the Supreme Court, said the justices have always been criticized for making decisions based on political, rather than legal, grounds.
Except between the 1940s and the early 1970s when the court tacked left, the justices have more often been on the right of the political spectrum, so most of the criticism has come from the left.
Abbie Cavender, a 25-year-old independent and healthcare worker from Ogden, Utah, said she is exhausted from hearing about historic decisions coming from the court, and despite her progressive ideals, she’s skipping the presidential election. 
“One way or the other, I feel like they’re not really going to make any positive impact,” Cavender said of the candidates’ ability to improve the court.
The poll was conducted from Aug. 2 to 4, surveyed 1,024 adults and had a margin of error of 3.2%.